Prediction Markets Are Media Now. How Marketers Should Use Them

Prediction markets traded about $45 billion on Kalshi and Polymarket in August 2026, and their odds now reach fans through X, the Bloomberg Terminal and the NHL. How prediction markets work, and why the odds are free media.

By AnkhLabs Research, Growth research team··7 min read

Key takeaways

  • Prediction markets let people trade contracts on real-world outcomes, and monthly volume on Kalshi and Polymarket grew from under $5 billion in September 2025 to about $45 billion in August 2026.

  • Kalshi and Polymarket make money mainly from trading fees, which on Kalshi peak at about 1.75 cents per contract when a market sits near 50/50.

  • A live probability is the most quotable number in media, and the NHL, X and Bloomberg already put prediction market odds in front of mainstream audiences for free.

Prediction markets went mainstream in 2026, and almost nobody in marketing is treating them as a channel yet. Somewhere between the 2024 election and this year's Super Bowl, a crypto-native product started getting quoted by normal people. They weren't necessarily using it, but they were repeating its numbers, like the odds that a team wins, that a bill passes or that a certain song opens the halftime show, in broadcasts, group chats and headlines written by people who have never touched a wallet.

The scale snuck up on everyone. Monthly trading on Kalshi and Polymarket, the two biggest prediction markets, went from under $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion by April 2026, and then hit a record $50.59 billion in July before easing to $45.33 billion in August. ICE, the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange, committed up to $2 billion to Polymarket, and Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in May.

On Super Bowl Sunday, Kalshi handled $1 billion in trades in a single day, including more than $100 million on which song Bad Bunny would open the halftime show with. Most coverage files all of this under fintech or gambling. If your job is growth, we'd file it differently, because a new attention channel just switched on.

A market is a headline that rewrites itself every minute, and the media quotes it for free.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let people buy and sell contracts that pay $1 if an event happens and nothing if it doesn't. The price of each contract, anywhere between 1 and 99 cents, works as the crowd's live estimate of the probability, so a contract trading at 30 cents means the market gives that outcome roughly a 30% chance.

Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and it says it handles over 90% of US prediction market activity. Polymarket began as a crypto-based market for global users and now runs a US version alongside it. Both list markets on elections, economics, crypto and culture, but sports carry most of the money, making up 80% of Kalshi's volume and 39% of Polymarket's since July 2024.

Prices move every time someone trades, which is what makes the product unusual. A poll is a snapshot taken days ago, while a market is a number that updates the second new information arrives, backed by people putting money on their view.

How do prediction markets make money?

Prediction markets make money mainly by charging trading fees, not by betting against their users. Kalshi's taker fee peaks at about 1.75 cents per contract when a market is priced near 50 cents, with makers paying about a quarter of that, and Polymarket switched on taker fees on 30 March 2026.

Polymarket's fees at peak uncertainty run from about $0.75 per 100 shares on sports to $1.75 on crypto markets, and traders who post orders pay nothing and earn a rebate. Because fees scale with volume, the business rewards whatever keeps people trading, which is why both companies chase sports, live events and anything with a constant stream of news.

Data is the second business. ICE's deal made it a worldwide distributor of Polymarket's event data to institutional customers, which tells you the odds themselves have become a product that people pay to see.

How a betting line became a media product

Watch where the odds travel. Bloomberg put Polymarket's election odds on its Terminal, right next to the polls, in front of its professional subscribers. X made Polymarket its official prediction market partner in June 2025 and wired the odds into the feed. In October 2025 the NHL became the first major US sports league to sign both Kalshi and Polymarket as official partners.

None of that is a traditional ad. It is free distribution earned by the shape of the product itself. A probability is about the most information-dense content there is, one number that carries a story, an argument and a reason to check back in an hour. Newsrooms quote it because it's fresher than a poll, group chats screenshot it because it's easier to argue about than an opinion, and every trade refreshes the content.

Why should a growth team care about prediction markets?

A growth team should care because prediction markets have become a fast-growing pool of mainstream attention, and their odds work as earned media that renews itself. The surface around them is still cheap because few brands are buying it, and any market connected to your category produces a steady stream of quotable news moments you didn't pay for.

The NHL deal proved that leagues will sell the surface, and very few brands have followed yet. The less obvious point is that a live market is a news cycle on a loop. That halftime-show market did more for one song choice than any promotional budget could have, because a hundred million dollars arguing over a question is itself the story. Attention follows stakes, which is the same reason crypto clipping campaigns work best when the moment has real tension in it.

The caveats that keep you honest

Headline volumes need care. Researchers who studied Polymarket's 2024 election markets found that naive counts of onchain trades overstated real trading by 60% to 88%, because the creation and redemption of shares got counted as trades, so treat volume claims the way you'd treat any protocol's deposit screenshot.

The legal ground is also still moving. In April 2026 a federal appeals court ruled that New Jersey can't apply its gambling law to Kalshi, but on 28 August the Ninth Circuit ruled 3 to 0 the other way, which sets up a likely Supreme Court fight over who regulates these markets. Most important of all, if a market ever exists about your project, you and everyone near you stay out of it, because every wallet is traceable and "team traded its own odds" is the one headline that turns a free news cycle into lasting damage.

What we'd tell a founder about prediction markets

Read the markets on your category like a briefing. Before you write your story, check what the crowd is already pricing, whether that's token listings, regulation or adoption milestones. The odds show which claims your audience already believes and which ones you'll need to prove, and that is free, live positioning research.

Make your milestones the kind of thing a market can settle. A vague roadmap can't be priced, but a dated, public, checkable commitment can, such as mainnet by a date, an audited number or a shipped integration. You never create the market or touch it. You give the world outcomes crisp enough to argue about and let the arguing be the reach.

Buy the surface while it's cheap. Sponsorships around prediction markets are where podcast ads were a decade ago, with high attention, low competition and just enough awkwardness that most brand teams won't touch them. That won't last, because a $22 billion valuation has a way of making a price list professional.

Quote the number in your own content. An odds line is borrowed credibility, because it is the crowd's view rather than yours. "The market gives this a 30% chance, and here's why we're taking the other side" is a stronger post than any claim about yourself, and it works best from a founder's account, which is why founder-led marketing and market commentary fit together so well.

The first crypto product the media covers for free

Crypto has spent a decade paying platforms rent for attention, and most projects are still marketing to the same ten million people. Prediction markets are the first crypto-native product that mainstream media covers voluntarily, every day, because its output makes a better headline than the headline. The teams that treat that as a marketing channel this year will look obvious in two.

Frequently asked questions

What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market where people trade on the outcomes of elections, sports, economics and news events. ICE, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed in October 2025 to invest up to $2 billion at about an $8 billion pre-investment valuation. Polymarket handled about $8.16 billion in trading in August 2026.

What is the difference between Kalshi and Polymarket?

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange that says it handles over 90% of US prediction market activity, and it is heavily weighted to sports, which made up 80% of its volume since July 2024. Polymarket started as a global crypto-based market with more politics and news trading, and it now runs a separate US platform as well.

Are prediction markets legal in the US?

Federally regulated prediction markets like Kalshi operate nationwide, but states are challenging them in court. The Third Circuit sided with Kalshi against New Jersey in April 2026, while the Ninth Circuit ruled 3 to 0 against Kalshi on 28 August 2026, a split that is likely to reach the Supreme Court.

How big are prediction markets in 2026?

Combined trading on Kalshi and Polymarket hit a record $50.59 billion in July 2026, helped by the World Cup, then fell about 15% to $45.33 billion in August, with Kalshi at $37.17 billion. That compares with under $5 billion a month in September 2025. Research on Polymarket suggests raw volume figures can overstate real trading.

Can a brand use prediction markets for marketing?

Yes, through sponsorships, data partnerships and commentary rather than trading. The NHL signed both Kalshi and Polymarket as official partners in October 2025, and X made Polymarket its official partner in June 2025. Brands can quote live odds in their content, but a team should never trade a market about its own project.



Prediction Markets Are Media Now. How Marketers Should Use Them

Prediction markets traded about $45 billion on Kalshi and Polymarket in August 2026, and their odds now reach fans through X, the Bloomberg Terminal and the NHL. How prediction markets work, and why the odds are free media.

By AnkhLabs Research, Growth research team··7 min read

Key takeaways

  • Prediction markets let people trade contracts on real-world outcomes, and monthly volume on Kalshi and Polymarket grew from under $5 billion in September 2025 to about $45 billion in August 2026.

  • Kalshi and Polymarket make money mainly from trading fees, which on Kalshi peak at about 1.75 cents per contract when a market sits near 50/50.

  • A live probability is the most quotable number in media, and the NHL, X and Bloomberg already put prediction market odds in front of mainstream audiences for free.

Prediction markets went mainstream in 2026, and almost nobody in marketing is treating them as a channel yet. Somewhere between the 2024 election and this year's Super Bowl, a crypto-native product started getting quoted by normal people. They weren't necessarily using it, but they were repeating its numbers, like the odds that a team wins, that a bill passes or that a certain song opens the halftime show, in broadcasts, group chats and headlines written by people who have never touched a wallet.

The scale snuck up on everyone. Monthly trading on Kalshi and Polymarket, the two biggest prediction markets, went from under $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion by April 2026, and then hit a record $50.59 billion in July before easing to $45.33 billion in August. ICE, the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange, committed up to $2 billion to Polymarket, and Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in May.

On Super Bowl Sunday, Kalshi handled $1 billion in trades in a single day, including more than $100 million on which song Bad Bunny would open the halftime show with. Most coverage files all of this under fintech or gambling. If your job is growth, we'd file it differently, because a new attention channel just switched on.

A market is a headline that rewrites itself every minute, and the media quotes it for free.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let people buy and sell contracts that pay $1 if an event happens and nothing if it doesn't. The price of each contract, anywhere between 1 and 99 cents, works as the crowd's live estimate of the probability, so a contract trading at 30 cents means the market gives that outcome roughly a 30% chance.

Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and it says it handles over 90% of US prediction market activity. Polymarket began as a crypto-based market for global users and now runs a US version alongside it. Both list markets on elections, economics, crypto and culture, but sports carry most of the money, making up 80% of Kalshi's volume and 39% of Polymarket's since July 2024.

Prices move every time someone trades, which is what makes the product unusual. A poll is a snapshot taken days ago, while a market is a number that updates the second new information arrives, backed by people putting money on their view.

How do prediction markets make money?

Prediction markets make money mainly by charging trading fees, not by betting against their users. Kalshi's taker fee peaks at about 1.75 cents per contract when a market is priced near 50 cents, with makers paying about a quarter of that, and Polymarket switched on taker fees on 30 March 2026.

Polymarket's fees at peak uncertainty run from about $0.75 per 100 shares on sports to $1.75 on crypto markets, and traders who post orders pay nothing and earn a rebate. Because fees scale with volume, the business rewards whatever keeps people trading, which is why both companies chase sports, live events and anything with a constant stream of news.

Data is the second business. ICE's deal made it a worldwide distributor of Polymarket's event data to institutional customers, which tells you the odds themselves have become a product that people pay to see.

How a betting line became a media product

Watch where the odds travel. Bloomberg put Polymarket's election odds on its Terminal, right next to the polls, in front of its professional subscribers. X made Polymarket its official prediction market partner in June 2025 and wired the odds into the feed. In October 2025 the NHL became the first major US sports league to sign both Kalshi and Polymarket as official partners.

None of that is a traditional ad. It is free distribution earned by the shape of the product itself. A probability is about the most information-dense content there is, one number that carries a story, an argument and a reason to check back in an hour. Newsrooms quote it because it's fresher than a poll, group chats screenshot it because it's easier to argue about than an opinion, and every trade refreshes the content.

Why should a growth team care about prediction markets?

A growth team should care because prediction markets have become a fast-growing pool of mainstream attention, and their odds work as earned media that renews itself. The surface around them is still cheap because few brands are buying it, and any market connected to your category produces a steady stream of quotable news moments you didn't pay for.

The NHL deal proved that leagues will sell the surface, and very few brands have followed yet. The less obvious point is that a live market is a news cycle on a loop. That halftime-show market did more for one song choice than any promotional budget could have, because a hundred million dollars arguing over a question is itself the story. Attention follows stakes, which is the same reason crypto clipping campaigns work best when the moment has real tension in it.

The caveats that keep you honest

Headline volumes need care. Researchers who studied Polymarket's 2024 election markets found that naive counts of onchain trades overstated real trading by 60% to 88%, because the creation and redemption of shares got counted as trades, so treat volume claims the way you'd treat any protocol's deposit screenshot.

The legal ground is also still moving. In April 2026 a federal appeals court ruled that New Jersey can't apply its gambling law to Kalshi, but on 28 August the Ninth Circuit ruled 3 to 0 the other way, which sets up a likely Supreme Court fight over who regulates these markets. Most important of all, if a market ever exists about your project, you and everyone near you stay out of it, because every wallet is traceable and "team traded its own odds" is the one headline that turns a free news cycle into lasting damage.

What we'd tell a founder about prediction markets

Read the markets on your category like a briefing. Before you write your story, check what the crowd is already pricing, whether that's token listings, regulation or adoption milestones. The odds show which claims your audience already believes and which ones you'll need to prove, and that is free, live positioning research.

Make your milestones the kind of thing a market can settle. A vague roadmap can't be priced, but a dated, public, checkable commitment can, such as mainnet by a date, an audited number or a shipped integration. You never create the market or touch it. You give the world outcomes crisp enough to argue about and let the arguing be the reach.

Buy the surface while it's cheap. Sponsorships around prediction markets are where podcast ads were a decade ago, with high attention, low competition and just enough awkwardness that most brand teams won't touch them. That won't last, because a $22 billion valuation has a way of making a price list professional.

Quote the number in your own content. An odds line is borrowed credibility, because it is the crowd's view rather than yours. "The market gives this a 30% chance, and here's why we're taking the other side" is a stronger post than any claim about yourself, and it works best from a founder's account, which is why founder-led marketing and market commentary fit together so well.

The first crypto product the media covers for free

Crypto has spent a decade paying platforms rent for attention, and most projects are still marketing to the same ten million people. Prediction markets are the first crypto-native product that mainstream media covers voluntarily, every day, because its output makes a better headline than the headline. The teams that treat that as a marketing channel this year will look obvious in two.

Frequently asked questions

What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market where people trade on the outcomes of elections, sports, economics and news events. ICE, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed in October 2025 to invest up to $2 billion at about an $8 billion pre-investment valuation. Polymarket handled about $8.16 billion in trading in August 2026.

What is the difference between Kalshi and Polymarket?

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange that says it handles over 90% of US prediction market activity, and it is heavily weighted to sports, which made up 80% of its volume since July 2024. Polymarket started as a global crypto-based market with more politics and news trading, and it now runs a separate US platform as well.

Are prediction markets legal in the US?

Federally regulated prediction markets like Kalshi operate nationwide, but states are challenging them in court. The Third Circuit sided with Kalshi against New Jersey in April 2026, while the Ninth Circuit ruled 3 to 0 against Kalshi on 28 August 2026, a split that is likely to reach the Supreme Court.

How big are prediction markets in 2026?

Combined trading on Kalshi and Polymarket hit a record $50.59 billion in July 2026, helped by the World Cup, then fell about 15% to $45.33 billion in August, with Kalshi at $37.17 billion. That compares with under $5 billion a month in September 2025. Research on Polymarket suggests raw volume figures can overstate real trading.

Can a brand use prediction markets for marketing?

Yes, through sponsorships, data partnerships and commentary rather than trading. The NHL signed both Kalshi and Polymarket as official partners in October 2025, and X made Polymarket its official partner in June 2025. Brands can quote live odds in their content, but a team should never trade a market about its own project.